Earth System Modeling

Optimizing emerging high-performance computing and information technologies, the Earth System Modeling (ESM) Program concentrates on advancing coupled climate and Earth system models for climate change projections at global-to-regional spatial scales and temporal scales spanning decadal to centennial. The ESM program focuses on research that improves representations in specific model components to achieve credible high-resolution climate simulations that address the variability and predictability of climate system changes and directly impact societal issues pertaining to future energy use and technology. ESM research and modeling tools directly support the Regional and Global Climate Modeling (RGCM) program. In addition, ESM contributes to the Climate Variability and Change element of the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) and coordinates with climate modeling programs sourced at other federal agencies.

Recent Content

Recent Highlights

Because current global climate models contain a large number of uncertain parameters in representing processes unresolved by the computational mesh, quantifying these uncertain parameters is important for future climate projections. The chaotic nature of the atmospheric noise, however, often...
The projection of future climate is one of the most complex problems undertaken by the scientific community. Although scientists have been striving to better understand the physical basis of the climate system and to improve climate models, the overall uncertainty in projections of future climate...
Objective •To compare modeled and observed patterns of the vertical structure of atmospheric temperature change Research •To determine whether anthropogenic “fingerprint” is statistically identifiable in satellite observations •To determine whether identification of a human-caused fingerprint is...
Objective: To improve scientific understanding of volcanic effects on climate during the late 20th and early 21st centuries Research •  To determine whether multi-variable signals of recent volcanic activity are identifiable in satellite observations •  To estimate the percentage of the...
Objective • To understand and interpret results published by Johansson et al. in a 2015 paper in Nature Climate Change Research • To determine why Johansson et al. obtained very small estimates of the surface cooling (-0.2°C) and the net radiative forcing (-1W/m2) caused by the eruption of...

Publications

Efficient simulation strategies are crucial for the development and evaluation of high-resolution climate models. This paper evaluates simulations with constrained meteorology for the quantification of parametric sensitivities in the Community Atmosphere Model version 5 (CAM5). Two parameters are...
The projection of future climate is one of the most complex problems undertaken by the scientific community. Although scientists have been striving to better understand the physical basis of the climate system and to improve climate models, the overall uncertainty in projections of future climate...
The relatively muted warming of the surface and lower troposphere since 1998 has attracted considerable attention. One contributory factor to this “warming hiatus” is an increase in volcanically induced cooling over the early 21st century. Here we identify the signals of late 20th and early 21st...
The paper attempts to understand and interpret results published by Johansson et al. in a 2015 paper in Nature Climate Change. It shows that Johansson et al.’s estimate of the radiative forcing from Pinatubo is 2.5 to 5 times smaller than the forcing inferred from direct and indirect observations...